The Squeeze’s Twist: Propane Up 11% While HFC Prices Pause

The European Commission’s latest quarterly F-gas price monitoring, covering Q2 2026 and reported this week, delivered a twist: the HFCs facing quota extinction barely moved in price, while the natural refrigerants everyone is switching to went up.

The numbers, drawn from 54 companies across 11 EU member states: R134a crept up just 1% on the quarter and 1% year on year, with R410A up 2%. Meanwhile R290 propane rose 11% against Q1, R32 rose 9% and R448A 4%. Reclaimed R404A actually fell 9%.

If you read our piece on the refrigerant price squeeze and the 2027 quota cut, this looks like the plot inverting. It is not — but it needs honest unpacking.

Three reasons not to over-read this

First, this is EU data. Great Britain has run its own F-gas regime since Brexit, with its own quota ledger and its own market; EU monitoring signals the direction of travel, but it is not a price list for a Swansea engineer’s van.

Second — the number that matters — a service-gas price is not a cabinet price. A bottle cooler or under-counter fridge running on R290 carries a charge measured in grams, not kilos: Tefcold’s UD counters list around 70 grams per circuit on their spec sheets. An 11% rise on a charge that small changes the cost of a full regas by pounds — and hydrocarbon kit rarely needs regassing at all. The gas is the cheapest line on the invoice.

Third, one flat quarter for HFCs does not repeal the law. Great Britain’s HFC quota still drops from 31% to 24% of baseline on 1 January 2027 — a 22.6% cut in available gas, already legislated. Quota squeezes arrive in steps, not slopes: calm quarters, then a lurch when the allocation tightens.

So is R290 kit still the right call?

Yes — and the arithmetic above is why. The real exposure is not the price of propane; it is owning a cabinet whose multi-kilo HFC charge sits on the wrong side of a shrinking quota, where a leak in 2028 means paying whatever rationed gas costs then — if an engineer can source it at all. A tiny hydrocarbon charge outside the quota system is insulation from that entire story, even after an 11% quarter.

Craven’s verdict

The strength of this quarter’s data: it confirms natural-refrigerant demand is real and growing — the price is rising because the switch is happening. The caution: do not mistake an EU pause for a GB all-clear, and do not let a scary percentage on a few grams of gas steer a five-figure equipment decision. R290 remains the exit from the quota cliff. Weighing a replacement? Ask us what refrigerant the cabinet runs on, and what that means for servicing costs past 2027.

The stunt — Read the Rating Plate: Find the rating plate on your busiest fridge or bottle cooler (inside the door or on the back). Note two things: the refrigerant code and the charge in grams. Under 200g of R290 or R600a? Gas-price stories barely touch you. A multi-kilo HFC charge? Diarise a replacement conversation before January 2027 — with whoever you buy from.

Sources: Cooling Post — European F-gas prices remain stable (11 September 2026) · Craven Cooling — The refrigerant squeeze and the 2027 quota cut