The Refrigerant Squeeze Is Here — And 2027’s Cut Is Already Law

Refrigerant prices have jumped hard in 2026 — and the next turn of the screw is already written into law. Defra confirmed on 15 May that it will not legislate this year to change the phase-down steps, which means the existing cut stands: Great Britain’s HFC quota drops from 31% to 24% of baseline on 1 January 2027, a 22.6% reduction in available gas.

In May, Cooling Post reported that wholesaler Beijer Ref UK imposed increases of 60% on R410A and R407C, 35% on R134a and 30% on R32. In March, National Refrigerants’ commercial director Simon Ravenscroft warned that “price increases are already being felt and are likely to continue throughout 2026”, with R404A, R448A, R449A and R452A all under quota pressure. National Refrigerants has also reported that, if UK demand holds steady, R134a supply could fall around 20% short of the market this year.

Law versus proposal — keep the two straight

The 22.6% quota cut on 1 January 2027 is existing law. The deeper cuts floated in Defra’s consultation — dropping the 2027 step further to 16.2% of baseline, and a high-ambition path to a 98.6% reduction by 2048 — are proposals only. Defra, which received 137 consultation responses, will publish a summary and next steps later this year. Plan for the cut that is law; treat the proposals as proposals.

Where the squeeze actually bites

Quota cuts don’t switch equipment off. They make the gas inside it dearer and scarcer — so the cost lands whenever a system leaks and needs a top-up. Kit running R404A (GWP just under 4,000) and R134a is most exposed: every kilo an engineer carries to site costs more than it did in January, and 2027’s cut points one way.

Hydrocarbon equipment sidesteps the escalator entirely. R290 (propane) and R600a (isobutane) are natural refrigerants outside the HFC quota system, with global warming potentials in single figures. Most modern plug-in cabinets — including the TEFCOLD ranges we supply — ship on hydrocarbons as standard. Our F-Gas 2026 compliance master guide walks through what the rules mean for each type of kit you might own.

Craven’s verdict

The strength of this moment is clarity: Defra has told the market exactly what 2027 looks like, so you can plan replacement cycles with real dates instead of rumours. The caution: don’t panic-scrap healthy equipment. A tight, well-maintained HFC system that never leaks never buys gas — leak-checking and good servicing remain the cheapest defence. This briefing matters most to operators running older R404A or R134a plant. Next step: know what gas is in your estate before your next breakdown makes the decision for you — Craven Cooling can help you map it and price the hydrocarbon route.

The stunt — The Two-Year Gas Audit: Pull your refrigeration service invoices for the last two years. Highlight every line that mentions a refrigerant charge — gas type and kilos added. Three highlights or more against the same appliance means it is leaking, and every future top-up will cost more than the last. That one highlighted stack tells you which machine to deal with first, whoever you buy from.

Sources: Cooling Post: R410A faces 60% price increase, with R134a up 35% (19 May 2026) · Cooling Post: Defra confirms no 2026 change to the GB phase-down (16 May 2026) · Cooling Post: warning of rising gas prices and supply issues (22 March 2026) · Defra consultation: F-gas regulation in Great Britain